8010 Exam Dumps - Operational Risk Manager (ORM) Exam

The recovery rate, the default hazard rate (also called the average default intensity) and the spread on debt arelinked by the equation Hazard Rate = Spread/(1 - Recovery Rate). Therefore, the recovery rate implicit in the given data is = 1 - 8%/10% = 20%.

Offsetting trades with other counterparties will not reduce credit exposure to a given counterparty. All other choices represent means of reducing credit risk. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.

In statistics, which is relevant to risk management, a distinction is often drawn between 'frequentists' and 'Bayesians'.Frequentists rely upon data to draw conclusions as to probabilities. Bayesians consider conditional probabilities, ie, take into account what things are already known, and inject sometimes subjective a-priori probabilities into the calculations. StatementI describes Bayesians, and not frequentists. In reality however, the difference is merely academic. Risk managers use whichever technique best applies to the given situation without making it about ideology.

The difference between 'Knightian uncertainty'and 'Risk' is similarly academic. Knightian uncertainty refers to risk that cannot be measured or calculated. 'Risk' on the other hand refers to things for which past data exists and calculations of exposure can be made. To give an example in the contextof the financial world, the risk from a pandemic creating systemic failures from a failure of payment and settlement systems and the like is 'Knightian uncertainty', but the market risk from equity price movements can be modeled (albeit with limitations) and is calculable. Statement II is therefore correct.

Once a risk is identified, it can be mitigated, accepted, avoided or eliminated, or transferred by way of insurance. Therefore statement III is correct.

Confidence accounting is a conceptual idea that suggests that accounting statements make reference to ranges as opposed to point estimates in financial statements. For example, instead of saying that the pension obligation is $xx million, the company should say the pension obligation is in a range of $xxm - $yy m with a certain confidence level. Statement IV is therefore inaccurate.

Choice 'c' is the correct answer. Refer to the detailed loss event type classification under Basel II (see Annex 9 of the accord). Youshould know the exact names of all loss event types, and examples of each.

Netting is the ability to set just the net balances when amounts are both owed and due. Netting can takemany forms. Payment netting is netting between counterparties that owe moneys to each other in the same currency under the same transaction (or master agreement). Closeout netting is when parties settle a net amount for the value of all outstanding transactions upon the occurrence of an event of default such as bankruptcy. Multiateral netting involves a third party that sets off exposures across counterparties that owe moneys to each other.

Closeout netting under the ISDA master agreement enables a party toterminate transactions early if an Event of Default or Termination Event occurs in respect of the other party. It involves the calculation and netting of the termination values of all transactions to produce a single amount payable between the parties. Closeout netting is therefore the correct answer.

Theprobability of default would make the future cash flows from both the bonds identical. If p be the probability of default, the cash flows from the risky corporate bond would be

= (cash flows in the event of default x probability of default) + (cash flows without default x (1 - probability of default))

=> p*0 + (1 - p)*(1 + 8.5%) = (1 - p)*1.085.

The cash flows from the treasury bond would be 1.04. These two should be equal, ie,

1.04 = (1- p)*1.085, implying p = 4.15%.

(Note: The above is a simplification intended for the exam. In reality investors would demand a 'credit risk premium' for the corporate bond over and above the expected default loss rate. They are unlikely to be happy with just being compensated with exactly the expected default loss rate plus the risk-fre rate because the expected default loss rate itself is uncertain. They would demand some premium over and above what the default rate alone might mathematically imply above the risk free rate. In this question, this credit risk premium is ignored.)

Choice 'd' represents the Basel II requirement, all other choices are incorrect.

Assuming time invariance and the Markov property, it is easy to calculate the transition matrix for any time period as P^n, where P is the given transition matrix for one period andn the number of time periods that we need to compute the new transition matrix for.

However, when the new time period is less than the time period the matrix is available for, the only way to deriving a transition matrix for a partial period is to numerically calculate a matrix M such that M^n = P. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer. Taking cube roots of a matrix is not a possible operation, dividing by 3 gives a matrix meaningless in this context, and P x P x P will give us the transition matrix for 3 years, not 1/3rd of a year.